A UK-based study reveals that Gaza’s actual death toll is far higher than official reports
London (QJ) – The number of people killed in Gaza is significantly higher than reported by local authorities, according to researchers from a UK medical research university.
Findings from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), published in The Lancet, estimate around 64,260 “violent deaths” in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024. In contrast, Gaza’s Palestinian Health Ministry had reported 37,877 deaths during the same period.
This suggests the ministry underreported fatalities by at least 41%, according to researchers. As of October, the study estimates that over 70,000 Gazans may have died due to the conflict, based on extrapolated data.
The total death toll from Israel’s military campaign is likely even higher, as the analysis does not account for deaths caused by disruptions to healthcare, food shortages, lack of clean water, sanitation breakdowns, and disease outbreaks.
As of January 7, the health ministry had recorded 45,885 deaths and 109,196 injuries. The ministry primarily counts bodies recovered.
LSHTM stated that its findings suggest nearly 3% of Gaza’s population has died from violence, with 59% being women, children, and the elderly.
The discrepancy in figures reflects the destruction of Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure, which has made accurate body counts difficult amid ongoing Israeli bombings, LSHTM researchers noted.
The study analyzed data from multiple sources, including hospital morgue records, online surveys, and social media reports. Researchers used a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which estimates figures when full data is unavailable.
Zeina Jamaluddine, a lead author at LSHTM, emphasized the findings highlight the urgent need for intervention to protect civilians and prevent further casualties.
Israel’s 14-month-long war in Gaza, launched in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack, has devastated vast areas, crippled essential healthcare infrastructure, and overwhelmed the remaining operational hospitals.